THE MONEY MAN is betting on the Springboks to beat Japan by 42 or more points in Brighton.
Folks, the long wait is finally over and the 2015 World Cup is here!
SARugbymag.co.za asked if I would steer you through the perils of trying to make a profit from this event. You’ll remember that in Super Rugby we managed to turn R5,000 into over R30,000 and donated it to a very worthy cause. Let's see if we can do the same after this tournament! By the way, the news on Junaid Arendse, the young lad we donated funds to, has been positive and it is great to be associated in some small way with his recovery.
People have asked me who will win this World Cup outright. My response is I have no clue! And neither does anyone else! There is no point putting on a bet for a team now. The prices on all teams will not change very much during the pool stage, so observe the teams and allow them to show form. All teams that have won the World Cup play themselves into form.
What I can tell you with certainty is which teams won’t win it, and where you should save your money.
Ireland are the most overrated side in world rugby and despite being in a relatively easy pool, no game will be a run out. Just ask Wales coach Warren Gatland what the Italians did to their World Cup hopes in a warm-up match. Ireland lack the sort of depth that you must have to win this tournament, so save your money!
Wales, England and Australia will not win this tournament either! Here’s why: they have to play each other and Fiji to get to the knockout stage. It is pathetic that these teams are grouped together and will have to knock lumps out of each other while other teams like Scotland get an easier run to the quarter-finals. Whoever comes out of this Pool of Death may well have trouble fielding a competitive side in the quarters, so save your money on these teams as well.
From the process of simple deduction, the winner will in all likelihood be New Zealand, South Africa or France. France are a team that you write off at your peril. I think they will top Pool D and avoid New Zealand and even if they don’t they never doubt themselves against the All Blacks, as history shows.
There are no sure bets in World Cup matches, especially with the handicaps. This is not SuperBru and bragging rights with your mates. This is about making cash and the right to put your kids through university, so bet with caution and don’t go chasing dragons.
Here are some value bets, and a bet to keep you cheering throughout the World Cup (bearing in mind I have R10,000 to start with):
R200 @ 10/1 – Ben Smith to be tournament's top try-scorer
R200 @ 11/2 – Julian Savea to be tournament's top try-scorer
@200 @ 9/2 – Handré Pollard to be tournament's top point-scorer
I have put down R1,000 that there will be more than 2,461 total points scored in all games combined
That last bet ensures I have an interest in every game regardless whether I bet directly on it or not.
My banker and only bet for charity this weekend is South Africa vs Japan.
Believe it or not Japan will be resting their key players for this game, because they have targeted the Scotland game as a more winnable match. I hope Mel Gibson does not catch a whiff of such disregard for the mighty Scots and Japan have obviously never watched game-day tapes of Braveheart!
South Africa to win by 42 or more points pays 75 cents on the rand and that is as close to a banker as you will get this weekend. I will be putting down R1,500 for a payback of R1,125 and hopefully getting the World Cup off to a flying start.
If you want all my tips, like my Facebook page. Check out my SuperBru picks for this weekend's World Cup and Currie Cup matches. And don’t forget to play for the longest winning streak in Dash4Cash's World Cup game. First prize is a trip to New York to watch a sporting event of your choice, while there is also R150,000 prize money to be won!
Photo: Steve Haag/Gallo Images