THE MONEY MAN is putting R3,000 on the visitors to win the Super Rugby quarter-final at Newlands.
The weather forecast for Cape Town on Saturday is cold and rainy, but that should not be much of an issue. I have looked at this game from every angle and I’m afraid to say, it will be the only playoff match Stormers fans get to see their team play this season.
The Stormers have had a decent year, finishing with 10 wins, four losses and a draw. However, that record is incredibly flattering when you compare their schedule to the Chiefs', who actually have a better record. If you take a simple formula of attaching a rating to each team and where they finished and compare the two, you find an alarming difference in strength of schedule.
For simplicity, give 18 points in value to the Hurricanes for finishing first in an 18-team tournament and one point to the Kings for finishing last. Add up all the places each team finished and divide by the number of games played and the Chiefs' strength of schedule is 11.33 out of 18, while the Stormers' is 7.57. That number may confuse some of you but it tells a pretty sobering fact – the Stormers have no chance of beating the Chiefs this Saturday!
Some die-hard Stormers fans will point to their team's good finish to the regular season. But beating the Kings, Force, Rebels and Cheetahs – all teams who were going through the motions because they had nothing to play for – is hardly an impressive achievement.
I believe the Chiefs will easily overcome the four-point 3.5 handicap, as long as they keep to team curfews and avoid the temptations Cape Town has to offer.
It is my banker and I am putting R3,000 on the Chiefs to win by four or more points. Including my stake, it pays back R5,700.
Photo: Carl Fourie/Gallo Images