THE MONEY MAN is betting on Argentina not to lose by 28-plus points against the All Blacks in Nelson.
I will be a spectator when the Springboks play the Wallabies in Brisbane. The game is too close to call and the bookies have it well handicapped.
The match that offers value to the punters out there is the one between the All Blacks and Argentina. I will be taking the +27.5 points the bookies are giving to Argentina and putting down R3,000 to win back R5,700.
Here’s why:
1. In the past five years or so, these teams have played 11 times and while Argentina have yet to beat the All Blacks, they have only lost by 28 or more points twice. That means Argentina have covered the +27.5 handicap 82% of the time. I love that number.
2. The All Blacks are rotating players. This team will lack continuity and quality to put up the type of score the bookies feel they will.
3. New Argentina coach Mario Ledesma has had a very quick and positive influence on this team. They are not the team that lost to Wales and Scotland in June.
4. The Pumas are effectively the Jaguares, and during their Super Rugby tour to Australia and New Zealand, they beat the Rebels, Brumbies, Blues and Chiefs. I think they will really fancy their chances on Saturday and I would not rule out a shock.
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