The All Blacks will win the 2023 World Cup and be crowned as champions for a record fourth time, according to an algorithm based on 10,000 simulations of the tournament.
New Zealand-based academic Niven Winchester developed the algorithm, which determined that the All Blacks will hoist the Webb Ellis Cup in Paris on 29 October.
According to Rugby Vision, the algorithm’s name, New Zealand has a 33.5 per cent chance of winning their fourth World Cup, ahead of tournament hosts France (20.6 per cent) and current number one-ranked Ireland (11.9 per cent).
South Africa are second-favourites for the title, as the Springboks have been given a 26.2 per cent chance of defending the World Cup.
WATCH: Fall Blacks or Fried Frogs
At the other end of the scale, Eddie Jones’ youthful Wallabies team were rated with just a 2.1 per cent chance to add to their previous World Cup triumphs in 1991 and 1999.
The Rugby Vision model uses three key components: a rating system for international teams; estimation of expected outcomes for each RWC game using those ratings; and 10,000 simulations of the tournament to account for uncertainty around expected outcomes.
New Zealand will get their World Cup quest underway in the tournament opener on Friday against France in Paris.
Photo: Alan Lee/Photosport/BackpagePix