The Springboks cannot control their destiny at the 2023 Rugby World Cup as France and Ireland will eliminate one of the southern hemisphere giants by sending the defending champions into a quarter-final clash against the All Blacks, writes ZELIM NEL.
While there are many ifs and buts, it is a certainty that South Africa’s pool schedule will have been completed before 6 October when France take on Italy, followed the next day by Ireland battling Scotland.
It’s also a fact that neither hosts France, nor top-ranked Ireland, will be excited by the prospect of taking on one of South Africa or New Zealand in the first round of the playoffs.
Despite reaching the final eight in all but two World Cups (1999, 2007), Ireland have never advanced beyond the quarter-finals and another stumble at this hurdle will constitute a huge failure for a program that has invested in foreigners to shed their second-tier status at the tournament.
Conversely, France have never failed to qualify for the playoffs, and only three times have they been denied a place in the semi-finals (1991, 2015, 2019).
Ireland’s all-time win rate against New Zealand is 14%; 30% against the Boks. For France, it’s 21% against the All Blacks and 27% against South Africa. In 102 matches between the teams, France have won 59 times (58%) which gives Ireland a 42% win-rate against Les Bleus.
MORE: Kolisi back for World Cup
France host the All Blacks in the opener on 8 September, and the result of that match is likely to determine who finishes first and second in Pool A.
Two weeks later, the Boks square up against Ireland in what is expected to determine the top two spots in Pool B.
The quarter-finals are set to feature the winner of Pool A against the Pool B runners-up, and vice versa.
South Africa’s pool schedule wraps up with a match against Tonga on 1 October which means they will not be able to manipulate their position in Pool B beyond this date. As mentioned above, the same is not true for France and Ireland.
If France win the opener, they will in all likelihood go into their final pool match against Italy knowing that a victory crowns them Pool A champions and locks them into a quarter-final against the runners-up in Pool B.
This is expected to be Ireland, if the Boks beat the reigning Six Nations champions on 23 September.
However, a victory for Ireland in that pool match would likely relegate the Boks to second place in Pool B, which means success for France against Italy would put the hosts into a quarter-final against the world champions.
A similar scenario could impact the result in Ireland’s last pool match. If a win against Scotland diverts Pool B leaders Ireland to a quarter-final against the All Blacks, they may well opt for a loss that lines them up to play France in the quarters.
Either way, the Boks will be at the mercy of these results and the likely outcome is a quarter-final against the All Blacks.
South Africa and New Zealand have shared the spoils in four previous playoff meetings at the Rugby World Cup.
Photo: Getty Images