SARugbymag.co.za's betting guru has donated R10,000 to the Cape fire-relief efforts, which he will double if the Stormers beat the Sharks at Newlands on Saturday.
OK, how did I do last week? Well, I guess it was like asking your cousin to your matric dance because you were out of options.
I was 3-4 against the handicap spread and 1-1 on the bets I placed money. Unfortunately for me and a charity to be named at a later date, my banker was Highlanders (-7.5) and as we all know they fell short by that single point. Great for SuperBru but disastrous for real punters.
The good news is that after three tricky weeks the form guide is crystallising and the fog is lifting. This week offers great gambling prospects and I will tell you which bets will make us money. Remember I was given R5,000 – I still have R4,800 to start the week.
Chiefs (-11.5) vs Highlanders (+11.5)
The unbeaten Chiefs face the Highlanders, and who'll forget how easily the Chiefs destroyed the Crusaders last week by 24 points. The Highlanders lost to the same team by six points at home so the 11.5 points seems like an easy handicap to overcome. I will be placing R250 on the Chiefs to beat the Highlanders by 12 or more points @9/10 which will see my R250 returned along with the R225 I win for the bet. It will be raining in Hamilton so the beating may not be as bad as it could be, but it will be more than 11.5 points.
Brumbies (-13.5) vs Force (+13.5)
Clear skies and ideal rugby conditions await these two teams, where the 2-1 Brumbies are handicapped by 13.5 points. Besides a first-game fluke win by the 1-2 Force over the Tahs they have looked pathetic, especially within the tight five. Saying that, I think two converted tries is too much to cover and my advice would be to tread lightly and bet sparingly on the Force to finish within that margin. I look forward to seeing what the bookies have for total points scored in this game and will advise on the social networks any value before kick-off.
Blues (-11.5) vs Lions (+11.5)
Both teams are winless and surely one team will get their first victory barring a draw. I believe this game will be fun to watch if the rain is not too hard as the weather is forecasting. I am expecting the Blues to win and win well. I am putting down R250 @9/10 for the Blues to win by 12 points or more.
Reds (+6.5) vs Waratahs (-6.5)
The weather is fine for this derby clash in Brisbane and this is my banker. I am going to be placing R2,000 on the Waratahs to win this match outright! No handicap pays 4/10 which will give me a profit of R800 when I win my bet. The stake is high but where else can you get a 40% return on your investment in one day?
Cheetahs vs Bulls
OK, ladies and gentlemen, tread carefully here, the bookies can’t separate these two teams and 9/10 is on offer for both these teams without any handicap. Even SuperBru players are almost split down the middle. Rain is forecast in Bloem for Saturday so I will only be betting closer to kick-off but I do think the Bulls may be the beneficiary of brand overvaluation. Based on what I have seen, the Cheetahs will win this game and I will be putting R500 on them to do just that on Saturday. The Bulls have disappointed all year. They should be winless and if it had not been for the TMO last week they probably would be, so I put no stock in that win over the Sharks.
Stormers (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5)
Definitely the game of the week for me with the 3-0 – that's right 3-0 Stormers – at home to the 1-2 Sharks. Lets spare a thought for the people affected by the Cape fires this week. As a gesture of goodwill I will be personally donating R10,000 to a charity that has been set up to help with relief for this tragedy, any suggestions? I do think this Stormers team has a bit of mongrel about them and this season feels different. I believe they will cover the 3.5 points but am giving this a wide berth and instead if the Stormers win I will double my donation to R20,000… Go Stormers go!
Photo: Barry Aldworth/BackpagePix