Where you should put your money in Super Rugby this weekend, according to MARK KEOHANE.
Before the season started I reckoned the Waratahs would top the Australian conference and be right in the mix for the Super Rugby title itself. The way they have started their campaign has done nothing to change that impression and this weekend they travel to Canberra for a showdown with the Brumbies.
Australian derbies are often dreary affairs and the bookies think this will be a tight contest. But they have installed the Brumbies as favourites to win the game and I have the Waratahs by 10, and the more I look to see why the bookies, including betflash.co.za, have made their call, I can't see it being the right one. Which is why the Waratahs have to be the overwhelming bet of the week. In terms of an even-money (double your stake) investment, the Waratahs actually start with an effective 1-0 lead. Go mad on this bet and include them in all your doubles and all to comes.
Elsewhere, betflash.co.za and I are on a similar page. Here is what it reckons (again based on a double-your-money spread), and what I think.
Chiefs vs Stormers
The bookies reckon the Chiefs by eight and I say Chiefs by seven.
Highlanders vs Force
The bookies reckon the Highlanders by seven, I reckon Highlanders by 15. So, the Force effectively get an 7-0 start. That won't be enough. Take doubles with the Highlanders and the Waratahs and the odds you are offered are 3-1. Every R100 on that double will net you a return of R400. Go for it!
Hurricanes vs Cheetahs
The bookies reckon the Hurricanes by six and I think they'll win by 10.
Lions vs Blues
The bookies reckon the Blues by four and I think they'll win by seven.
Rebels vs Crusaders
The bookies reckon the Crusaders by seven and I also think it will be seven.
Sharks vs Reds
The bookies reckon the Sharks by nine and I reckon the Sharks by seven.
A good treble, based on the wins at the handicap and returning odds of 5-1, is the Waratahs, Highlanders and the Hurricanes.
Another good bet is the double with the Waratahs overcoming a two-point deficit to 'win' and the Highlanders overcoming an eight-point deficit. That double is worth R540 for every R100 you invest.
In the Flash Pots section on betflash.co.za there is the opportunity to bet on a combination of winners. Based on my predictions, there isn't a bet for me, but the favourite combination, at 3-1, is Chiefs, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Brumbies and Sharks. These odds are based on the scoreboard result only, no handicap applies.
The biggest outsider, at 75-1, is wins for the Stormers, Cheetahs, Force, Brumbies and Sharks. I'd stay well clear of that combination!
Photo: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images