The 2023 World Cup pools would look very different had the draw taken place closer to the tournament, writes SIMON BORCHARDT.
Bizarrely, the draw for rugby’s showpiece event was done on 14 December 2020 in Paris, exactly 1,000 days before the opening match between hosts France and the All Blacks on 8 September 2023.
Based on the World Rugby rankings from 1 January 2020, the top four seeds were the Springboks, All Blacks, England and Wales respectively. They were placed in band one of the draw, with the teams ranked fifth to eighth – Ireland, Australia, France and Japan – in band two, and the teams ranked ninth to 12th – Scotland, Argentina, Fiji and Italy – in band three.
Since then, England, Australia and Wales have plummeted to eighth, ninth and 10th on the rankings respectively, with Scotland climbing to fifth and Fiji (who upset England at Twickenham last Saturday) to seventh.
As a result of holding the draw three years before the event, only two of the current top five-ranked teams – Ireland, South Africa, France, New Zealand and Scotland – can progress to the semi-finals of the 2023 World Cup.
Scotland’s reward for breaking into the top five is to be in the same pool as the Springboks and Ireland, while two of the top-five ranked teams will be knocked out in the quarter-finals.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the draw, two of Argentina, England, Australia and Wales will progress to the semi-finals without having to play a top-five team.
Obviously, a World Cup draw can’t take place two weeks before the tournament, but holding it after last year’s November Tests – based on the rankings then – would have ensured balance pools based on recent form, from which the top four seeds could all progress to the semi-finals.
And if you think nine months isn’t enough time for fans to buy tickets and make travel plans, consider the fact that the draw for the 2022 Fifa World Cup – the world’s biggest sports event – was made on 1 April 2022 in Doha, 235 days before the opening match on 21 November, and they didn’t have any issues.
Following criticism of the 2023 draw, World Rugby said earlier this year that it will hold the World Cup draw closer to the tournament in future thanks to a new “hosting model” that will allow it to “create collaborations with the host union”.
“The top of the men’s Test game has never been more competitive,” a spokesperson added. “There has never been so much movement [in the rankings] over a two-year period. Bearing that in mind and noting the format of four pools of five teams, there is arguably no perfect time for a draw.”
Common sense has thankfully prevailed. Unfortunately, the damage to the 2023 event – billed as the most competitive World Cup ever – has been done.
2023 World Cup pools if draw was done today (with current rankings):
Pool A: South Africa (2), Fiji (7), Japan (14), Uruguay (17), Namibia (21)
Pool B: Ireland (1), Scotland (5), Australia (9), Tonga (15), Romania (19)
Pool C: New Zealand (4), Argentina (6), Italy (13), Georgia (11), Portugal (16)
Pool D: France (3), England (8), Wales (10), Samoa (12), Chile (22)
Actual 2023 World Cup pools (with current rankings):
Pool A: New Zealand (4), France (3), Italy (13), Uruguay (17), Namibia (21)
Pool B: South Africa (2), Ireland (1), Scotland (5), Tonga (15), Romania (19)
Pool C: Wales (10), Australia (9), Fiji (7), Georgia (11), Portugal (16)
Pool D: England (8), Argentina (6), Japan (14), Samoa (12), Chile (22)